Fuzzy Logic Combined with Dempster-Shafer Theory for African Trypanosomiasis Spreading Prediction

This paper presents Fuzzy Logic and Dempster-Shafer belief theory to encounter the most important and unexpected enemies of the human been the epidemic diseases through the prediction of the risk of African Trypanosomiasis spreading. This work is estimated basic probability assignments using Fuzzy membership functions which capture vagueness. The advantage of this method is a new method to obtain basic probability assignment proposed based on the similarity measure between membership function. The result reveals that the system has successfully identified the risk of African Trypanosomiasis spreading. In areas which are in close proximity to Angola and Zambia, the risk of African Trypanosomiasis spreading obtained degree of belief 17.3% of very low, 19.6% of low, 18.6% of medium, 22.5% of high and 17.1% of very high. The risk of African Trypanosomiasis spreading in areas which include Angola, Botswana, Congo, Congo DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.